Election 2000: An Outcome in Doubt Raises More Questions

Published: December 01, 2000, By Sheila A. Millar, Attorney-at-Law, Keller & Heckman, Washington, DC

As the saying goes, "It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings." When this column was written, however, the last notes on the 2000 elections had not yet been sung. Regardless of which candidate ultimately assumes the Presidency next January, the election results will affect not just the White House but the whole dynamics of our government, and they will have a long-term impact on converters, suppliers, and their customers.

The White House—Whether George Bush or Al Gore ultimately assumes the office of the President, the razor-thin margins demonstrate that neither candidate has a mandate to make sweeping changes. To achieve any one of the priorities outlined as a candidate, the next President will have to work in a bipartisan manner to advance a legislative agenda.

The electoral college vote demonstrates that Americans are split: urban versus rural, north versus south, and the coasts versus the central plains. Polls show that Americans are also split along racial, gender, and class lines. These dynamics have implications for a host of policy issues. The outcome of this race will be that while one party assumes office, the other will be galvanized to gear up for the 2004 elections.

The Congress—The Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives but lost several of their 223 seats, making any defections from the party line a major issue. At press time the latest count has the Republicans winning 220 seats to the Democrats' 211, with two seats held by independents. A winner has not been declared in two districts.

Retirements, however, will affect key committee chairmanships, including the House Commerce Committee, previously chaired by Tom Bliley (R-VA). The Commerce Committee has jurisdiction over food packaging, health, environmental, and product safety legislation. Representative Bill Archer (R-TX) also stepped down from the critically important House Ways and Means Committee, which must originate tax and spending bills.

In the Senate, 49 seats now are held by Democrats and 50 by Republicans. One seat, now held by Slade Gorton (R-OR), remains in doubt. Under a variety of scenarios, however, the Republicans should retain control of the Senate. Advice and consent of the Senate is required for Cabinet, ambassadorial, and judicial appointments. As in the House, retirements or defeats will immediately affect key Committee chairmanships, notably, the Senate Finance Committee. Many freshmen are coming in, with First Lady Hillary Clinton likely to be the most visible.

The aging of the Senate, however, will be a significant factor influencing the 2002 elections and potentially affecting the balance of power in the Senate even before that time. Seven senators are in their mid-seventies or older, some in poor health. Three of the seven are Republicans, and all seven are in states with Democratic governors who could appoint a successor if they pass away.

The States—In 2001 Republicans will be governors in 29 states, Democrats in 19 states, and independents in two states. State legislatures in 2001 will spend a considerable amount of time on redistricting based on the 2000 Census. California, Texas, Florida, Arizona, Colorado, and Georgia are expected to gain House seats, while Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New York, and Illinois are expected to each lose one seat.

The Implications—While much of Election 2000 remains both controversial and murky, the elections have clearly established one thing: The electorate is sharply divided on both candidates and issues. Both candidates for President advanced proposals and policies that are likely to be strongly opposed by about half the voters.

The next President will have to establish much more modest and incremental goals than those he expressed as a candidate if he is to achieve support even within his own party. Coalition and consensus-building will be absolutely essential.

The narrow margins, the lack of a clear mandate, and the exigencies of re-election demands for all the elected representatives will make it more difficult for any one interest group to achieve sweeping legislative change in the next few years.

Sheila A. Millar, a partner with Keller and Heckman LLP, counsels both corporate and association clients. Contact her at 202/434-4143; email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.. Visit PackagingLaw.com.