Smithers Pira Issues Study of Security Printing
- Published: November 16, 2015
LEATHERHEAD, SURREY, UK | According to new report from Smithers Pira, The Future of Global Security Printing Markets to 2020, the worldwide market for security printing will grow from $20.5 billion in 2010 to $36.6 billion in 2020, at a compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.0% for the 10-year period. During 2010–2015 the market grew with a CAGR of 6.1%. The CAGR for 2015–2020 is predicted to be 5.9%, an indication of the growing pressure of digital technologies supplanting traditional print solutions.
Two-thirds of the growth can be attributed to two end-use markets, says the study. Banknotes, the largest end-use segment, compensated for the declining rate of growth in terms of volume through higher prices charged for durable banknotes and premium security features; the tax stamps end-use segment is anticipating a surge in demand towards the very end of the decade when global and European track-and trace mandates are implemented.
Inks and threads are expected to grow fastest, with a CAGR of 8.0% and 8.6% respectively in the 2015–2020 forecast period. The main driver for this growth, notes the report, is market demand for color shift and movement in security features; holograms are adversely affected by this trend, resulting in a below-market growth rate of 4.2%. The growth rate for biometrics will decrease substantially, as most identification programs have shifted from mass enrolment to maintenance mode, and biometrics on mobile devices is not considered as security printing, the report says.
In 2015 the banknote end-use market accounted for 40% of the global market for security printing. Personal ID follows with a 29% market share, having been boosted by large-scale implementations of ePassport and National ID projects.
Growth in the banknotes end-use market will increase slightly to a CAGR of 5.5%, as higher prices commanded by durable banknotes offset diminished demand due to longer life and alternative payment methods. In addition, the use of bank checks will continue to decline rapidly.
The Personal ID end-use market has the largest decrease in growth, from an 8.7% CAGR over 2010–2015 to a mere 2.6% CAGR for 2015–2020. Even though National ID projects will still take place from 2015–2020, the number is expected to be smaller than in the previous five years, and ePassport projects have shifted to maintenance mode. High growth is projected for the brand protection and stamps end-use markets as a result of various global, US and EU mandates.
“While the increased demand for tax stamps is a true market expansion, the market potential for banknotes is slowly becoming smaller,” says Rudie Lion, author of the report. “Monetary policies and socio-economic conditions partly explain this development, but even more value should be attributed to the threats and opportunities arising from the digital and mobile future.”
From a geographical perspective, Asia represented almost 50% of the global market for security printing in 2015. The report says any large-scale initiative in either of these countries or in the region as a whole disproportionately affects market assessments and forecasts. The market for security printing in Africa is forecasted to grow with a 9.6% CAGR—much stronger than the overall market rate. Reasons include population growth, increased spending and increased mobility, several ID programs, and improvement of the financial infrastructure.
The new report covers a wide range of technology categories and identifies cutting-edge developments that determine the future direction of the industry. Company says the data and analysis will aid all stakeholders in the security printing industry in developing successful programs and strategies.
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